The Myth of Ricky Rubio

The Myth of Ricky Rubio

*this is a tad choppy, as it was adapted from an email I sent to a few fellow college hoops fans; apologies if it is less polished than the norm*

Everyone loves Ricky Rubio.  NBA teams, clamoring for the move up to get him at 2 or 3.  2 or 3!  Here is a little reality check regarding everyone’s current crush.

There is little chance that RR should be a top 3 pick in the NBA draft. 

Statistically, about the only area in which he surpasses the other top PG choices is height – 6′3″ (at the olympics and on his euroleague team site, but which has miraculously grown to 6′4″ since putting his name into the draft).  here are some numbers:

 

Badalona

 

Year        PPG    2Pt%   3pt%         FT%   Reb   Stl    Asst

05-06        2.6      38.5    66.7 (4/6)   70       1.0   1.0     0.7

06-07        4.5      48.7    25.8          69.1     2.6   2.0     2.1

07-08      10.2      42.6    26.5          79.4     3.     2.0     3.9

 

http://www.euroleague.net/competition/players/showplayer?pcode=LFW

 

But he was awesome in the olympics baby!  Let’s compare him to Paddy Mills (stats from the FIBA site, which has an error in Rubio’s stats depriving him of an assist per game, which I corrected below):

 

stat     Rubio     Mills

 

min      18.5        23

pts        4.8        14.2

reb        4.0          2.2

ast        4 (3)        2.0

2pt%   35           52.3

3pt%   16.7        36.4

FT%    78           83

stl       2.1          1.3

to        2.0          1.0

PF       2             1

 

Yet mills is projected much, much lower than Rubio, despite the numbers and similar media touts from pro players such as chris paul and kobe bryant, against whom he played.

 

While this year he IS averaging a robust 6 APG in euroleague, he is shooting an unexciting 39% from the field (ESPN NBA draft page link) (Mills, in 32 mins per game at St Mary’s, avg’d 18.4 pts and 4 apg sr year, but had that wrist injury which slowed him)

 

Also, I am not sure how he is going to play 30+ minutes in the NBA when he has never played more than 21 minutes a game avg., and usually markedly less than that.

 

How does RR compare against the other highly rated point guards?  Let’s compare with flynn, lawson, holiday, teague and maynor (all stats from ESPN/NBA/Draft):

 

stat    flynn     lawson      holiday    teague    maynor

hgt      6′1″        6′1″*         6′4″         6′2″         6′3″      

min     37.3      35.5          27.1         32         35.5

pts     17.4      16.6           8.5        18.8         22.4

reb       2.7       3.0           3.8          3.3          3.6

ast       6.7       6.6           3.7!         3.5!          6.2

a/t       2:1      3.5:1         1.7:1       1.1:1       2.1:1

fg%     46.0       53          45.0         48.5        46.3

3pt%   31.7       47          30.7         44.1        36.1

FT%    78.6     79.8         72.6         81.7        81.5

stl       1.4        2.1           1.6          1.9          1.7

 

*this is clearly a bald lie.  I know everyone inches up, but if lawson is anything over 5′11″, I’m Yao Ming.

 

What does RR have on any of these guys other than height?  A better press agent?  I’m not saying that height isn’t important, obviously, it is, since Holiday is the SECOND ranked PG behind rubio, and has by FAR the worst set of stats there (though he played out of position all year, which would certainly have a negative effect on his numbers).  People worry about lawson since a lot of his points are on layups, which they don’t think he can get in the NBA, being about 5′4″.  OK 5′11″.  But the cat shoots almost 50 percent from 3!  Maynor seems to do eveything well, but never gets there.  He is always close, but never THERE, so I can see reticence in taking Maynor.  Other than Holiday (whose rating cannot be anything other than height based, in that heaveraged half as many points and half as many assists as everyone else other than teague (assists), all of these guys compare favorably to RR, and yet, there is little chance any of these guys cracks the top 5, and likely only 2 will top 10.

 

Look at RR’s ”positive/negative” from espn mock (my comments in ital):

 

Positives:

	For years Rubio has shown the potential that will make him an early pick. (Menahem Kahana/AFP)

• Great size for position (condeded)
• Long wingspan (same as 1, conceded that he is a tallish pg at 6′3″+)
• Amazing playmaker, fantastic anticipation (this means what, that he gets as many assists as Flynn, Maynor or Lawson?)
• Incredible basketball IQ (pretty much the same as 3?)
• Flair for the spectacular (Irrelevant)
• True floor leader (pretty much the same as 4)
• Fearless, tough  (Irrelevant and unmeasurable.  Pure puffery.)
• Crafty at getting to the basket (Irrelevant and unmeasurable.  Pure puffery. If anything, clearly the same as 3)
• Decent midrange jump shooter (as much a positive as “only a decent midrange jump shooter” would be a negative)
• Good production at young age (like every other listed PG)

Negatives: 

• Lacks deep range on his jumper (sucks from the arc)
• Lacks explosiveness athletically (weighs 180- and plays under 20 minutes a game)
• Below-average lateral quickness (below average defender, which is mentioned not infrequently in his various talent analyses)
• Needs to add strength (see 2)

 So this would make him, um, tall for his position, with a good basketball IQ and a decent jump shot (he does shoot well from the line), but who is not great from 3, at defense and doesn’t have NBA build or stamina (at the moment).  Yep.  Exciting.

And Rubio got these stats against whom?  A load of crappy Euro teams?  Please.  We like saying “Ricky Rubio!”  It rolls off the tongue nicely.  But if this guy was names Arnold Rubio, he would be the sixth or seventh ranked point guard here.

I’m not saying that RR won’t be good.  He is still 18, and by all accounts is a great passer.  But even without considering the crazy contract issues he faces (he has something like a $6 million buy out from his team in Spain, and apparantly by rule, the NBA team that drafts him can only pay up to $500,000 of this directly) pushing Rubio into the top 3 seems like a consderable overreach. 

Andy, please go.

Apologies in advance for my first post here being an Eagles rant, since I won’t write about them often - MTG, College hoops and other assorted topics will be the general fare here – but I randomly typed this up to get it out of my system and send it to a few friends so I didn’t have to say it six times.  So, it was done, and I need to test this blogamjiggy out anyway. Going into last weekend’s Eagles game, I took a fairly unwelcome position as far as Eagles supporrters might be concerned, but I think it is a defensible one; Now, I root for the Eagles, much as all of us in Philly do, but I am in the front seat of the let’s get Andy Reid out train and, as far as I am concerned, Sunday’s game could not have gone much more to my liking, unless Graham had hit the winning field goal in OT.   I was rooting for the Bengals.  No, I don’t like the Bengals, and I do like the Eagles.  But, for the longer term good of the club, we have to hope for enough catasrophic clusterf*cks to happen on that field, with the same non-committal/it’s my fault/blame me comments by Andy Reid that Lurie has to take his head out of his….. um, the sand.   As far as a let’s-get-Andy-fired game, this was a goodie.  The playcalling was generally miserable, the time management was atrocious, and the game was a nailbiter against a team acknowledged to be in the bottom three or four in the league.  The fourth and one in OT from the Eagles’ 28 (22?) was like a gift to anti-Reiders.  If he goes for it (which he has to) he will almost undoubtedly call an 0-14-thus-far-this-season Westbrook up the middle special, which will fail, since it it literally the only play the Bengals need to defend against, given Andy’s situational history, and this week Andy would get burned down by the fans and press.  If he punts – with over a minute and no way to stop the clock – to the Bengals (with 2 time outs) and plays for the tie, when the 5-4 team clearly and desperately needs a win, he simply demonstrates both a fundamental misunderstanding of the team’s place in the playoff picture (and I use this term loosely, since I was resigned to the Eagles not making the playoffs some weeks ago), and a lack of brasos that (were he to display such) Philly fans might actually respect.    Seriously, if Reid has gone for it, called a play other than Westbrook up the middle, and failed to make it (giving the game to the Bengals), at least he could have stood up in his “press conference” (again loose terminology here, since you could cart up pretty much any post-loss press converence and hear Andy’s three Teddy Ruxpin answers (or is that ‘Rux-spin,’ lol) slash justifications for whatever), and said ‘Hey, I felt at this point we needed a win, and that we had to go for it.  We switched up the play since the usual 4th and 1 thing hadn’t been working (and hey, who would have expected it, I mean, if you can’t get one good fake out off of throwing three games away on failing to execute the same play….) but the Bengals defended it well, and now we have to move on to planning for Baltimore..’ I think people would have respected that.   But no, Reid took the horrible pack-it-in-for-the-tie route, which I cannot believe anyone in Philly can accept.  And furthermore, he had the temerity to say in his post game obfuscation conference that going for it had basically never entered his mind and it was clearly a punting situation.  Also, by steadfastly maintaining that the fact that Donovan didn’t know the tie ballgame rules had no impact on the outcome of the game – a position which is both ludicrous and basically indefensible – Reid had not only failed to close any distance in the (ever growing) rift between him and the fans/press, but he is also basically telling us all that we are stupid – another thing that Philadelphians pretty much don’t appreciate.  I mean continually telling me the garbage sandwich you are giving me is a steak doesn’t make it taste any better, and frankly gets insulting pretty fast.   So, until Andy is gone, I will be likely rooting for the “others.”  Next week will be particularly galling to me, and I’m not sure I can do it.  Before moving to Philly, I was a card carrying Browns Backer (born in Cleveland, in my blood, sorry) and when that SOB Art Modell stole my team away, it ripped my heart out.  I seriously basically didn’t watch football for about two years.  I don’t know if I can possibly ever root for the Ravens, ever.    Look, I think Andy did a lot of good things here.  He took an OK team, and with some different personnel, and a younger Donovan that was willing to scramble, made it a pretty darn good team, winning division titles and making a super bowl.  But it is clear that Andy cannot, or will not, take the next step.  He won’t get, or even seriously pursue, a wide receiver that is good enough to spread the D and make it easier on the QB and rest of the offense and which might open the running game up a little.  He refused to part with a lousy third round pick for Gonzalez while LJ Smith continues to sulk and stink up the joint.  He  wouldn’t give Kolb a try last year in a game sutation, even when the eagles were mathamatically eliminated from the playoffs, for fear that he would be decent, and it would hurt Donovan’s confidence.  His play calling continues to be predictable and ineffective, and even in-game decisions are becoming more glaringly questionable – challenge descisions are generally poor (the back to backers against the Giants?  Like, I understand the second one, which was close, becuase it involoved both a touchdown and possession, but the first?  Please, Andy must have sopmething against timeouts), Buckhalter gets 40 years on a run and doesn’t get a single bloody touch for the rest of the game – there is no sense of urgency instilled in his players in overtime….the list goes on…..   Instead of raising the Eagles up, as he did a number of years ago, Coach Reid is now holding the team back – with his personnel decisions, with his playcalling, and with his time management deficiencies.    It is time for Andy to go.